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Aug 17th 2006From The Economist print edition

Having taught the world how to shop online, Amazon.com now finds the world shopping elsewhere on the internet. It is time to become a pioneer again
教会了徒弟，饿死了师父。是时候再次成为开创者了。

IN HIS most recent annual report, Jeff Bezos, the founder and chief executive of Amazon.com, reprints his letter to shareholders of 1997. “It's all about the long term,” he wrote then. The point he is making today is that nothing has changed: the pioneer of online retailing is still having to place big bets on the future, cutting into profit margins and unnerving some investors. Having established the internet as somewhere to buy things, Amazon is again spending heavily on development in anticipation of consumers wanting to download music, video and books instead of having them delivered in the post.
最新的亚马逊年报中再版了其创始人兼首席执行官，杰夫贝佐斯， 1997年给股东们的信。信中曾写道“这是为了公司的长期发展”。今日旧话重提意未改：这个网上零售先驱仍然需要对其未来发展赌一把，削减利润率，吓跑一部分投资者。将因特网变成一处购物的地方后，如今，不同于邮递，亚马逊在线又开始斥巨资培育消费者们对音乐、视频和书籍的下载市场。

Amazon is highly secretive about its plans, but the online industry expects it soon to launch a service for downloading films and television shows. Amazon's investment in new technology and services helped slash net profit by 58% to $22m in its second quarter, compared with the same period a year earlier. This is despite a 22% increase in sales, which are expected to reach $10.6 billion for 2006 as a whole.
亚马逊在线对自己的计划缄默碛口，但是这个行业预期它很快会推出电影和电视节目的下载服务。在新技术和新服务上的投资，让亚马逊在线第二季度的净利润与去年同比减少58%，降到了220万美元。这其中还包括了22%的销售收入增长因素，市场还曾预期其2006年全年的销售收入会达到106亿美元。

Boosting sales has been costly for Amazon, which appeared on the internet in July 1995 selling books. It has pumped money into discounted shipping and diversifying its merchandise away from books, to create what Mr Bezos likes to describe as “Earth's biggest selection”. Not just music and video discs have been added, but also consumer electronics, jewellery, clothing and, most recently, groceries (largely non-perishable packs of items).
与1995年7月在网上卖书时一样，现在再提高销售量对亚马逊在线来说成本太高。很多钱被花在送货折扣和商品多元化上，造就了贝佐斯描绘的“巨无霸选择”。囊括其中的不仅有音乐和视频影碟，还有消费电器，珠宝，服装，最近还加入了杂货（众多种类的耐用品）。

Amazon's product range is expanding in much the same way as online sales are. As people become more accustomed to shopping on the internet, they are ordering a greater variety of goods and services from a wider range of websites. In America online sales were up by 25% in 2005 over the previous year, reckons Forrester, a research company. Travel is now by far the biggest category, worth some $63 billion last year, followed by computer equipment and software ($14 billion), cars ($13 billion), clothing ($11 billion) and home furnishings ($8 billion).
亚马逊的经营范围同网络销售的发展一样逐渐扩大。人们渐渐习惯于网上购物，从不同的网站上面定购各种各样的货物。reckons Forrester研究称，在美国，网上销售收入在去年上升了25%。旅游是其中最大的一项，去年达到约630亿美元，接着是电脑设备和软件业（140亿美元），汽车业（130亿美元），服装业（110亿美元）和家具业（80亿美元）。

Amazon's challengers come from two directions. First, other online retailers are growing rapidly and appear in various forms. Many of the dotcoms are invading each others' turf. From auctioning people's old stuff, eBay now also hosts fixed-priced virtual shops offering new goods for sale. And Google is adding more shopping-type services, such as Froogle, a shopping-comparison service, and more recently its new Checkout payments system, which rivals eBay's PayPal.
亚马逊的挑战者分为两类。其一，别的网上零售商在以不同方式快速成长。许多网络公司正在进军对手的领域。不光拍卖人们的旧货了，eBay现在也寄存有虚拟商店，它们出售明码标价的新商品。此外Google也在增加更多的购物类的服务，像提供购物比较服务的Froogle，还有最近与eBay支付宝抗衡的支付系统。

Second, traditional retailers are rapidly getting their online acts together. This pits Amazon against giant retailers with huge purchasing power, like America's Wal-Mart and Britain's Tesco. These “multichannel” retailers make a virtue of their ability to offer both “bricks and clicks”. Many provide online customers with the option of picking up goods from the shop down the road. This is proving popular with web buyers who want things immediately or are keen to avoid shipping costs and staying in to accept a delivery. Circuit City, a big American electricals chain, expects in-store pick-ups to account for more than half its online sales this year.
其二，传统零售商也在加紧整合他们自己的网络业务。这就使得亚马逊与零售巨头们一同争抢庞大的消费群体，像美国的沃尔马和英国的德斯高。这些“多层次的”零售者们尽其所能的提供“水泥加鼠标”式的服务。其中的很多给网上用户提供送货服务。这项服务对买家来说十分受欢迎，买家们想尽快的得到货物或者是想避免运费，所以在家中等着货物被送上门。美国电器连锁店，电路城，希望今年人们的储备性购买可以占其一多半的网上销售量。

Mr Bezos saw these threats coming and prepared for them. The internet provides consumers with near perfect product and price visibility. It does not take many clicks of a mouse to compare Amazon's prices. Mr Bezos decided there was no point trying to duck this and in 2000 invited other retailers to sell their goods on his website.
贝佐斯先生看出了这些威胁，他做好了准备。互联网给消费者提供众多可见的产品和价格。而且不需要点太多下来比较。贝佐斯先生决定让这一想法付诸实践，并且在2000年邀请其他零售商在自己的网站上卖他们的东西。

Many people, even some within the company, thought this would cannibalise Amazon's own sales. Yet as with many consumer innovations, Mr Bezos has said there was no way to know if the strategy would work other than to experiment.
许多人，甚至是公司里的人，都认为这是在侵蚀自己。然而和他的许多消费创新认识一样，贝佐斯先生说，不去试一试的话就没有办法知道它行不行的通。

It did help to lift overall sales. Amazon says sales of third-party items, from which it takes a commission, have increased from 6% of all items sold in 2000 to 28% in 2005. Over that time, the company says its own retail revenues were up three-fold.
他的做法的确促进了整体销售。亚马逊称第三方产品的销售增长率从2000年的6％攀升到了2005年的28％。公司也是从第三方产品的销售中获取佣金的。

Amazon also runs the websites of other retailers, such as Target and Borders. Not all these arrangements are successful. Amazon used to have a joint webstore with Toys “R” Us, but earlier this year a court ruled that Toys “R” Us could end the deal because Amazon had breached an exclusivity agreement by allowing other merchants to sell their toys on the site.
亚马逊也运营着其他零售商的网站，就像靶心和靶边。这种安排也不总是成功。亚马逊过去和Toys “R” Us就拥有一个合资的网络商店，但是不久前法院裁定Toys “R” Us可以终止合作，因为亚马逊让其他商人在那个网站上卖玩具，违反了合同中的一项排他性协议。

Having other retailers competing with you so openly puts Amazon under pressure to make sure that it has the lowest prices. This can cut into margins, but the company hopes the payback will come from customers who want to buy something from a third party also acquiring goods that Amazon itself is selling.
你这么开诚布公的与其他零售商竞争，就让人们难以相信你的价格是最低的。这样会削减利润，但是这家公司寄希望于消费者，那些既想从第三方买东西的也想买亚马逊商品的人。

To encourage this, Amazon provides the same checkout for both third-party sales and its own purchases. It also puts plenty of temptation in customers' way by recommending purchases. These are based on what other customers who have chosen the same product have bought and the buyer's own previous purchases. On August 10th Amazon expanded this with the launch of “Search Suggestions”, in which customers, sellers, authors and other users can make recommendations that are linked to search keywords.
为了鼓励这种消费，亚马逊对第三方的销售过程应用和自己同样的支付模式。同时也用购买推荐来刺激用户的购买欲望。这样的推荐，依靠购买了同样产品的消费者还购买了什么其他物品，和购买者自己的往期购买记录。8月10日亚马逊启用了一个“搜索建议”功能来增强这种激励手段，这种功能可以让顾客、商家、作者和其他用户在商品关键字搜索结果上显示一些购买建议。

Getting things quickly and cheaply to customers can be expensive. Amazon often subsidises shipping costs through special deals. The main one is Amazon Prime. In return for a fee of $79 a year, the company provides members of the programme with unlimited express shipping on most goods.
让客户快捷廉价的得到商品，其成本是昂贵的。亚马逊经常免去特别交易的运费。这块主要就是亚马逊优惠。交79美元年费，公司就会给会员提供大多数商品一年无限制的快递服务。

Movies to go
涉足电影
By building its brand and expanding its offerings, Amazon has done all the right things, says Safa Rashtchy, an analyst with Piper Jaffray, an investment bank. “Free shipping should not be taken lightly,” he adds. “It is a major marketing tactic for them.” But in the decade ahead, he wonders if Amazon will still be doing so well unless it can also offer delivery by download too. Mr Rashtchy thinks Amazon may have missed the boat with digital music, but could still have a chance to become a big online destination for digital video.
投资银行Piper Jaffray的一位分析师Safa Rashtchy说，通过建立品牌形象和扩大赠送范围，亚马逊把正确的事都做了。他补充到“免费配送可不是一件轻松的事”。“对他们来说这是一个主要的市场营销策略”。可未来的10年，如果不提供下载配送，这位分析师想知道亚马逊是否还能保持这样的佳绩。Rashtchy先生认为亚马逊没有赶上数码音乐的船，但仍然有机会成为一个得到数码视频的好去处。

The battle for downloads is becoming more intense. The market for digital music is dominated by Apple's iTunes, which is also likely to expand into video. Microsoft is entering the music-download business with a digital player, called Zune. On August 8th Nokia bought an American digital-music distributor, Loudeye, to develop its own service for its music-enabled handsets. The Finnish telecoms-equipment company says these are now selling roughly twice as fast as Apple's iPods.
下载服务的战火越烧越旺。数码音乐的市场已经被苹果的iTunes占领了，它也希望进军到视频领域。微软也在用一个名为Zune的数码播放器拓展音乐下载业务。为了给自己能听音乐的手机提供自己的服务，8月8日诺基亚收购了美国数字音乐发行商Loudeye。这家芬兰电信设备公司称，这种手机现在大概比苹果的iPods好卖两倍。

Video downloads are available online from some sites, such as Movielink.com, which is owned by five big film studios. News Corp's websites, including MySpace.com, are planning to sell films and shows from the group's Fox network.
有些网站提供视频下载，像被5大电影工作室拥有的Movielink.com。新闻企业网站MySpace.com正计划出售福克斯网络集团的电影和电视节目。

Amazon does provide some digital downloads of music and video, although it is mainly promotional material. At heart the company remains primarily a purveyor of old-world media: some two-thirds of its sales are from books, CDs and DVDs. Whatever share of media ends up being downloaded, Amazon will miss out unless it introduces its own service. The one it is said to have in the pipeline has evolved in the past year from offering mostly music to concentrating more on films and television shows, according to Advertising Age. The trade publication says this is because Amazon's executives felt Apple's grip on the music market would be too difficult to break.
亚马逊的确提供一些音乐和视频下载服务，虽然那只是一些促销材料。骨子里它还是一个旧时代的媒体承销商：其三分之二的销售收入来自图书、CD和DVD。不管这些传媒的物理载体会不会因为下载而消失，要是不推出自己的下载服务，亚马逊都会错过成功的机会。据说这一要纳入规划的建议去年就制定好了，在广告时代，要汇集更多的电影和电视节目而非单纯的提供音乐。商业出版商说，这是因为亚马逊的主管们感到难以打破苹果公司对音乐市场的控制。

A video service could resemble a downloadable version of Netflix, a Californian company that pioneered online video rentals. Netflix's customers compile online lists of videos they want to see and receive them in the post. When the DVDs are returned in their pre-paid envelopes, the next titles are sent. With no late fees, Netflix has pummelled Blockbuster's store-based video-rental model.
视频服务可以类似于一个可下载版的Netflix，这是一个加州的网上视频租赁公司。Netflix的客户编制好他们需要的视频列表，然后就可以在邮件中收到它们。当用户把DVD放在预付邮封中寄回公司时，物品名称列表也寄了出来。因为没有滞纳金，Netflix撼动了Blockbuster基于商店的视频租赁模式。

Netflix is also exploring how to deliver movies online. Amazon has already copied the Netflix postal model in Britain and Germany and it has dropped hints that it may launch a postal service in America: Mr Bezos told Wired magazine last year that Amazon was well placed to do so “...and we wouldn't have to pay heavy marketing fees.” The same could be said about video downloads. Although Mr Bezos has discussed his strategy in the past with The Economist, the company did not respond to requests for an interview.
Netflix也在探索如何在线交付电影。亚马逊已经将Netflix的邮寄模式搬到了英国和德国，并且已经暗示要在美国提供这样的服务：贝佐斯先生去年告诉《在线》杂志，亚马逊已经准备好这样做了“并且我们不用负担沉重的营销费用”。对于视频下载也应如此。尽管贝佐斯先生去年已经和《经济学人》讨论过他的策略，但是公司还是没有为此而召开过新闻发布会。

How much media will move to online delivery is the subject of huge debate. Plenty of music is already delivered this way. Yet for three-quarters of internet users, CDs remain the most popular format for music, according to a big survey of the British music market by Nielsen//NetRatings. Internet users are more likely to buy music online, on average spending ?59 ($107) a year downloading it. But the study found they also spend another ?99 on CDs.
有多少媒体产品的交易会转移到在线交付是一个极具争议的问题。大量的音乐已经通过这样的方式交付了。根据Nielsen//NetRatings对英国音乐市场的调查，对于四分之三的网络用户来说，CD仍然比音乐受欢迎的多。网络用户更愿意通过在线的方式购买音乐，平均每年花费59英镑（107美元）下载。但是研究还发现他们也会花99英镑在CD上。


“The need to own music in a physical form, whether it's to play in other music systems, to minimise the chances of losing it or just because they like to have a physical collection, remains very strong amongst internet users,” says Alex Burmaster, the research company's European internet analyst. The same will be true for video, which in digital form is cumbersome and takes longer to download. Broadband-equipped televisions and personal video recorders will make the process easier. Reluctance to read books on digital devices could be even stronger.
这个研究公司的欧洲网络分析师Alex Burmaster 说“希望拥有独立的音乐实体，而不管是不是要在别的音响系统中播放，保存也好收藏也罢，这样的需求在网络用户中非常强。”对于视频也是这样，虽然它的数据形式比较麻烦，需要更长的时间去下载。装配了宽带的电视和个人视频刻录机会让这种过程简单的多。还有，不愿对着数码设备读书的需求也很高。

The great disintermediator
了不起的中介人
Yet digital downloads of all types of media will be demanded by some customers?perhaps too many to ignore. Amazon is already well placed to offer these, not least because of its high level of customer service. The company has been building up the capacity to store huge amounts of digital data: a subsidiary called Amazon S3 rents out temporary storage by the terabyte to other websites.
然而有些客户需要下载所有形式的媒体??也许他们多得不能被忽视。亚马逊已经准备好提供这些服务了，服务决不会差，因为它的客户服务水平一贯很高。公司现在也有能力储存这般海量的数码数据：一个亚马逊的子公司S3还给其它公司提供临时的千兆字节数据存储租赁服务。

Some of this online equivalent to Amazon's physical warehouses is already being filled by digital copies of books. Another Amazon subsidiary, BookSurge, is busy courting publishers to have their works scanned into digital files. Modern printing techniques allow books to be printed relatively cheaply on demand, “whether it's one copy or one thousand”, Greg Greeley, head of media products at Amazon, said when BookSurge was acquired last April.
一些和亚马逊实物仓库等价的存储空间，已经储存了图书的数码副本。另一个亚马逊的子公司，BookSurge，正在忙着说服出版商们将他们自己的出版物扫描成数码文件。在线购物时，现代打印科技能相对便宜的印刷书籍。四月份，BookSurge 说服成功后，亚马逊媒体产品主管Greg Greeley 说道“不管存货只有一份还是有一千份。”

On-demand printing is particularly suited to lower-volume books and those that would ordinarily be “out of print”. Amazon already sells print-on-demand books, although that is “invisible” to consumers, Mr Bezos has said, because they look exactly like any other books.
按需求印刷特别适用于发行量较小的书籍，而且通常都是“绝版”了的。亚马逊其实已经卖过按需求印刷的书籍，客户对此并不知情，贝佐斯先生说，因为这些书和其它的书看起来一样。

Just as music and videos could be offered with the option of buying a downloadable version, so too could books. Many people are sceptical, yet devices for reading digital books and documents are rapidly improving. A new “e-reader” device from Sony has a special screen that mimics the way light falls on a printed page. The size of a paperback, it can store several hundred novels.
音乐和视频能作为可下载版本出售，书籍也可以。许多人怀疑这一点，然而用来阅读电子图书和文件的设备却在飞速的改进中。一个索尼的“e-reader”装置有一个模仿灯光照在印刷纸张上的特殊屏幕。这种软皮本的容量能存储几百本小说。

In a statement, Mr Bezos says he is “looking forward” to a slowdown in the company's rate of growth in technology spending later this year. That will cheer Amazon's patient investors. In the past year its share price has underperformed the NASDAQ. Unless the pioneer of online retailing can provide downloadable media it risks being “disintermediated”?rather as only a decade ago high-street bookshops, music and video stores were disintermediated by Amazon itself.
声明中，贝佐斯先生说他“希望看到”，下半年公司技术研发支出的增长能够减速。那样会让亚马逊的理性投资者高兴。过去一年，这家公司的纳斯达克股价表现糟糕。除非这位网上零售业的先驱可以提供可下载媒体，否则它会冒被“去中介化”的风险??就像10年前，高速公路边的书店、音乐和视频商店被亚马逊去了中介化一样。